文章摘要
苟露峰,杨思维,任莉莉.基于核密度估计的海洋经济增长质量与数量的耦合分析[J].国土资源科技管理,2021,38(3):14-27
基于核密度估计的海洋经济增长质量与数量的耦合分析
On Coupling Analysis of the Quality and Quantity of Marine Economic Growth in Shandong Province Based on Kernel Density Estimation
  
DOI:
中文关键词: 海洋经济  增长质量  评价指标体系  耦合协调度  核密度分析
英文关键词: marine economy  growth quality  evaluation index system  coupling coordination degree  kernel density estimation
基金项目:
作者单位
苟露峰 青岛理工大学商学院山东青岛266520 
杨思维 青岛理工大学商学院山东青岛266520 
任莉莉 青岛理工大学商学院山东青岛266520 
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中文摘要:
      海洋经济向质量效益型转变是建设海洋强国的新要求。在深入剖析海洋经济增长质量内涵的基础上,从五大维度构建海洋经济增长质量评价指标体系,运行集析型测算海洋经济增长质量,结合耦合协调度模型和核密度估计方法研究山东省海洋经济增长质量的动态演化规律。结果表明:(1)2006—2016 年山东省海 洋经济增长质量总体呈上升态势,海洋经济增长质量和数量之间的耦合度和耦合协调度均呈下降趋势。(2)山东省海洋经济增长发展演进逐渐转向质量增长带动数量增长阶段,五大维度发展指数曲线波动差异较大,表现在海洋经济结构和海洋资源环境指数曲线呈“N”型,海洋科技发展指数曲线呈“M”型,海洋经济增长稳定性指数曲线呈“W”型结构。(3)海洋经济增长质量和增长数量两大系统耦合协调度波动明显,呈现“良好协调—中度协调—低度协调”三个阶段交替运行态势,距离高度协调状态还有很大的提升空间;核密度估计表明,山东省海洋经济增长质量和数量耦合在研究期内呈收敛态势。研究为山东省海洋经济政策制定提供一定参考依据。
英文摘要:
      Marine economy in China should be on the way of pursing quality and efficiency,which is a new requirement for the development of a maritime power. Based on a deep analysis of the connotation of marine 收稿日期:2021-01-13;改回日期:2021-03-05 基金项目:教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(18YJC790035、20YJC790164);山东省社会科学规划研究专项(18CDCJ22);青岛市 社会科学规划研究项目(QDSKL1701148) 作者简介:苟露峰(1986—),女,副教授,博士,从事海洋经济增长理论与政策研究。E-mail:goulufeng1234@126.com 通信作者:任莉莉(1998—),女,硕士研究生,从事产业组织与管理研究。E-mail:rll6833@163.com doi:10.3969/j.issn. 1009 -4210.2021.03.002第 3 期 苟露峰,等:基于核密度估计的海洋经济增长质量与数量的耦合分析 15 economic growth quality,this paper constructed an evaluation index system of marine economic growth quality from five dimensions,calculated the quality of marine economic growth by adopting the SPA model,and analyzed the dynamic evolution law of marine economic growth quality in Shandong Province combining the coupling coordination model and kernel density estimation method. The results were shown as follows:(1) From 2006 to 2016,the marine economic growth quality of Shandong Province presented a steady upward trend,while the degrees of both coupling and coupling coordination between the quality and quantity of marine economic growth were declining.(2) The development of marine economy growth in Shandong Province had gradually shifted to a stage at which quantity growth was driven by quality growth. At the same time,there were significant differences in the margin fluctuation of the development exponent curve from five dimensions,including the “N” type for marine economic structure and resource environment exponent curves,the “M” type for marine technological development exponent curve and the “W” type for marine economic growth stability exponent curve.(3) The coupling coordination degree between quality and quantity of marine economic growth fluctuated obviously,which presented a revolving trend of three stages including well-coordinated,medium-coordinated and poor-coordinated stages,and there was still a need for further improvement to reach the well-coordinated stage. The results of kernel density estimation indicated that the coupling between quality and quantity of marine economic growth in Shandong Province showed a convergence trend during the research period. This research also provided some references for the formulation of marine economic policies in Shandong Province.
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